Have you ever wondered what separates a good pitcher from a great one? It’s not just about throwing hard or having a nasty curveball. In the world of baseball analytics, metrics like Pitching+ have become the crystal ball for predicting a pitcher’s future performance. But here’s the kicker: it’s not always as straightforward as it seems. Let me take you on a journey through the latest Pitching+ gainers and decliners, and trust me, it’s a wild ride filled with surprises, contradictions, and a healthy dose of skepticism.
The Rise of the Unlikely Heroes
Aaron Civale tops the Pitching+ gainers list, and honestly, I’m as baffled as you probably are. His Stuff+ is barely above average, but his Location+ has skyrocketed. The problem? His strikeout and walk rates haven’t improved, and his SIERA and xERA are screaming red flags. What’s keeping him afloat? A ridiculous 90.3% LOB%—basically, he’s been living on borrowed time. If you’ve been riding this wave, now’s the time to jump ship. As much as I love a good underdog story, this one feels like a house of cards waiting to collapse.
Roki Sasaki, on the other hand, is a tale of unfulfilled potential. His Stuff+ has jumped, but his strikeout rate is still underwhelming, and his walk rate is through the roof. Then, out of nowhere, he delivers a career-best start with zero walks. Is this the turning point, or just a cruel tease for fantasy owners? Personally, I’m not betting the farm on him just yet. What makes this particularly fascinating is how quickly narratives can shift in baseball—one game can make us question everything we thought we knew.
Emerson Hancock is the breakout star no one saw coming. His Pitching+ has surged thanks to massive gains in both Stuff+ and Location+. But here’s the catch: his success is heavily reliant on his four-seamer and sinker, while the rest of his arsenal is underwhelming. Can he sustain a 20% strikeout rate and a sub-3.00 ERA? In my opinion, probably not. But even if he falls short, he’s still a mixed league asset worth monitoring. What this really suggests is that breakouts driven by location improvements are often less sustainable than those fueled by better stuff.
The Control Conundrum
Cam Schlittler is the poster child for why I prioritize stuff over control. His Location+ has jumped by 10 points, but his Stuff+ has barely budged. The real head-scratcher? His walk rate has plummeted from 10.2% to 4.9%. Where did this pinpoint control come from? If you take a step back and think about it, this is the kind of improvement that’s hard to trust until it’s proven over a longer period. Still, he’s the easiest pitcher on this list to believe in—at least for now.
Drew Rasmussen and Michael Soroka both owe their Pitching+ gains to improved location, but their stories are vastly different. Rasmussen has a history of low walk rates, so his spike in Location+ feels more sustainable. Soroka, however, is a different beast. His groundball rate has vanished, and he’s now relying on strikeouts with below-average stuff. A detail that I find especially interesting is his 4.75 xERA, which suggests he’s been getting hit harder than his ERA indicates. This raises a deeper question: how long can he keep this up before regression hits?
The Fall from Grace
On the flip side, the Pitching+ decliners are a cautionary tale. Zebby Matthews, once a velocity darling, has lost his edge. Carlos Rodón, fresh off elbow surgery, is struggling with control—a common issue for pitchers returning from such injuries. Cole Ragans and Max Scherzer both saw their Location+ plummet before hitting the IL. What many people don’t realize is that location metrics can often be early indicators of injury, making them invaluable for both fantasy managers and real-life teams.
Jack Flaherty is the saddest case of all. His velocity is inconsistent, his walk rate is up, and his Location+ has dropped. As someone who owns him in two leagues, I feel the pain. But here’s the thing: dropping him feels like admitting defeat, yet holding onto him is a weekly exercise in frustration. This is the kind of dilemma that makes fantasy baseball both maddening and addictive.
The Bigger Picture
If there’s one thing this analysis has taught me, it’s that Pitching+ is a powerful tool, but it’s not the be-all and end-all. Context matters. A pitcher’s underlying skills, injury history, and even their mental game can all influence their performance. For instance, Reid Detmers has maintained his Location+ despite transitioning back to the rotation, but his LOB% suggests his ERA could rise. Connelly Early and Michael King are both struggling with control, but their situations are vastly different. Early’s decline feels more like a fluke, while King’s issues seem rooted in a broader decline in stuff.
Final Thoughts
As I reflect on these gainers and decliners, I’m reminded of how unpredictable baseball can be. Metrics like Pitching+ give us a framework for understanding performance, but they don’t tell the whole story. Personally, I think the most successful fantasy managers are those who can balance data with intuition, who know when to trust the numbers and when to follow their gut. If you’ve made it this far, I hope you’ve gained not just insights into these pitchers, but a deeper appreciation for the complexities of the game we all love. After all, isn’t that what makes baseball—and fantasy baseball—so endlessly fascinating?
